A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
